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Panel discussion at federal NDP policy convention

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Yesterday I spoke on a panel discussion on economic inequality, along with Andrew Jackson and Armine Yalnizyan. We were guests at the federal NDP’s policy convention in Ottawa. The panel was moderated by Guy Caron.

Topics covered included the minimum wage, basic income, affordable housing, the future of jobs, gender budgeting, poverty among seniors, Canadian fiscal policy in historical perspective, and Canadian fiscal policy in comparison with other OECD countries.

The discussion was 30 minutes long. You can watch it here.


Ten proposals from the 2018 Alternative Federal Budget

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I’ve written a blog post about this year’s Alternative Federal Budget (AFB).

Points raised in the blog post include the following:

-This year’s AFB would create 470,000 (full-time equivalent) jobs in its first year alone. By year 2 of the plan, 600,000 new (full-time equivalent) jobs will exist.

-This year’s AFB will also bring in universal pharmacare, address involuntary part-time employment among women, eliminate tuition fees for all post-secondary students in Canada, speed up implementation of the federal carbon tax, and increase the corporate tax rate from 15% to 21%.

-I’m particularly intrigued by the AFB’s poverty reduction measures, which include a sizeable top-up to the GST rebate, a $4 billion annual transfer to the provinces and territories, increases to seniors’ benefits, and $3.5B in new spending for housing.

The full blog post can be found here.

Five Things to Know About the 2018 Federal Budget

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I’ve written a blog post about the 2018 federal budget.

Points made in the blog post include the following:

-Important new housing investments were made for First Nations, Inuit and Métis people.

-The Working Income Tax Benefit was expanded, made automatic and rebranded (i.e., renamed).

-Canada’s official unemployment is now the lowest it’s been in decades.

-Canada’s federal debt-to-GDP ratio is (by far) the lowest of any G7 country.

The link to the full blog post is here.

Homelessness and employment: The case of Calgary

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I’ve just written a blog post about homelessness and employment, with a focus on Calgary (where I live and work).

Points raised in the blog post include the following:

-Persons experiencing homelessness usually have poor health outcomes, making it especially challenging to find and sustain employment.

-There are several non-profits in Calgary that assist persons experiencing homelessness to find and sustain work.

-Persons finding the most success in those programs tend to be relatively healthy (compared with their peers) and be between the ages of 25 and 60.

-In some cases, persons experiencing homelessness are overqualified for jobs.

-There is some evidence that subsidized housing can improve employment outcomes.

The link to the full blog post is here.

Ten proposals from the 2018 Alberta Alternative Budget

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The 2018 Alberta Alternative Budget (AAB) was released yesterday—it can be downloaded here. An opinion piece I wrote about the AAB appeared yesterday in both the Calgary Herald and the Edmonton Journal.

Inspired by the Alternative Federal Budget exercise, this year’s AAB was drafted by a working group consisting of individuals from the non-profit sector, labour movement and advocacy sectors.

Here are 10 proposals from this year’s AAB.

  1. Introduce a 5% provincial sales tax. The AAB gives the Notley government credit for generating additional revenue by increasing both personal and corporate tax rates, while also increasing tobacco and fuel taxes. However, in light of the very substantial loss in revenue as a result in the drop of the price of oil, we’d like to see the Alberta government take one step further and introduce a provincial sales tax. A 5% provincial portion, added on to the 5% Goods and Services Tax, could result in a 10% Harmonized Sales Tax (HST). This would generate approximately $5 billion annually.

 

  1. Introduce an HST rebate for low-income households. It’s well-known that sales taxes in general have a larger impact on low-income households than on higher income households (that’s because lower-income households spend a larger proportion of their income on consumption). To counteract that, the AAB proposes the introduction of an HST rebate for low-income households.

 

  1. Introduce provincial pharmacare. Many low-income Albertans currently struggle to afford prescription medication; and many employers (especially small businesses) struggle to afford health and dental programs for their employees. Not only would a universal coverage prescription drug plan ensure prescription drug coverage for all; it would take advantage of bulk purchasing, reducing costs for both households and employers.

 

  1. Increase staffing in long-term care facilities. This year’s AAB would hire more registered nurses and health care aids for Alberta’s long-term care facilities. We would spend enough to bring facilities up to the minimum recommended staffing levels. This would result in improved quality of care.

 

  1. Reduce class sizes in K-12 education. Specifically, the AAB proposes to bring class sizes at the K – 3 level down to levels recommended by the Alberta Commission on Learning. We’d do this by hiring more teachers, education assistants and support staff.

 

  1. Reduce tuition fees for all post-secondary students in the province. While we believe the complete elimination of tuition fees is a laudable long-term goal, for this coming budget year, the AAB proposes to reduce tuition fees for all post-secondary students in Alberta by 20%. The AAB would also eliminate the interest on the provincial portion of student loans, as well as invest in grants to current students.

 

  1. On the Indigenous file, create an Intergovernmental Relations position in each provincial ministry. The AAB would invest in cultural capacity-building in all 22 provincial ministries. One Intergovernmental Relations position would be created in each ministry; that role would focus on relations between the ministry and Indigenous peoples, keeping in mind challenges when working across ministries and departments at all orders of government.

 

  1. Implement universal child care. The AAB would expand the Notley government’s current pilot program of $25-per-day child care, making subsidized and regulated child care to all Alberta households. Among other things, we expect this to result in increased labour market participation by women.

 

  1. Increase social assistance benefit levels. Social assistance (i.e., ‘welfare’) recipients have seen the monthly value of their benefits decrease in real terms over the past several years. Today, a single adult (without dependents) on social assistance in Alberta receives just $8,000 annually to live on.[1] The AAB would increase monthly benefit levels by $150 and index these benefits to inflation going forward.

 

  1. Create more affordable housing. The AAB would fund the repair of existing social housing units; it would also provide funding to build new affordable housing for vulnerable populations (e.g., persons experiencing absolute homelessness, the frail elderly, persons with HIV/AIDS). Further, it would provide funding for rent supplements (i.e., financial assistance for rent) to low-income households.

 

In Sum. Budgets are always about choices, and that principle has guided alternative budget exercises across Canada for over two decades. This year’s AAB proposes a costed-out set of policy proposals that would improve labour market, health and education outcomes, while also addressing principles of reconciliation and reducing income inequality.

 

[1] A person with a severe disability can receive more.

Saskatchewan budget misses opportunity on rental housing assistance

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I recently wrote a ‘top 10’ overview blog post about the 2018 Saskatchewan budget. Following on the heels of that, I’ve now written an opinion piece about the budget’s announcement of a phase out a rental assistance program for low-income households.

Points raised in the opinion piece include the following:

-Across Saskatchewan, rental vacancy rates are unusually high right now, making this a good time to provide rental assistance to tenants for use in private units (indeed, right now it’s a so-called renter’s market in Saskatchewan, meaning it’s a relatively good time for tenants to negotiate rental agreements with private landlords).

-Thus, rather than phasing out the program, it would have been sensible to have expanded it.

-Phasing it out will very possibly lead to more homelessness, which in turn may lead lead to higher public costs elsewhere (especially to the health care sector).

Interestingly, just yesterday the Saskatchewan Landlord Association made many of these same points themselves; they like the rental assistance program, as it increases demand for its members’ housing units (many of which are currently sitting empty).

It’s of course also important for government to finance housing owned by non-profit entities. I recently wrote about the importance of a variety of measures to improve housing affordability in the housing chapter of this year’s Alternative Federal Budget.

Meanwhile, the link to my recent opinion piece is here.

 

Call for federal support of cancelled Ontario basic income project

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Members of the Progressive Economists Forum noted with dismay the premature cancellation of Ontario’s basic income pilot and have penned an open letter to Federal Minister Jean-Yves Duclos (Families, Children and Social Development) calling for federal support for the project. So far, the letter has been signed by 50 Canadian economists and researchers.

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Dear Minister Duclos:

As economists and researchers, we noted with dismay the premature cancellation of Ontario’s Basic Income Pilot. The announced cancellation before the first anniversary of full enrollment ensures that no useful data can have been collected to date, and none will now be collected. This deprives not only Ontario but also the rest of Canada of valuable evidence that might have influenced policy. Ontario was one of several Basic Income experiments worldwide that, together, would have allowed international comparisons and rational policy development.

We, the undersigned economists and researchers, are writing to ask you to use the resources and authority of your office to salvage what you can of the Ontario Basic Income Pilot for the benefit of all Canadians and, especially, to ensure that the 4,000 vulnerable participants who agreed in good faith to participate in Ontario’s experiment are treated in a just and humane manner.

Closing the experiment with no announcement of how participants will be transitioned out of the program is unethical. Participants used the money they received from participation in the experiment and relied upon the promises that were made by the Ontario government to make long-term plans to better their lives. They leased apartments, registered in postsecondary education and borrowed money to invest in the future wellbeing of their families. As a result of the cancellation, they are likely to be worse off now than before they agreed to open their lives to researchers. This is unconscionable and must not be allowed to happen.

Thank you for your consideration.

Sincerely,

1. Abdella Abdou, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Brandon University

2. Roy J. Adams, Professor Emeritus, DeGroote School of Business, McMaster University and Ariel Sallows Chair of Human Rights, Emeritus, College of Law, University of Saskatchewan

3. John Allett, Professor Emeritus, Department of Social Science, York University

4. Sheila Block, Senior Economist, Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives – Ontario

5. Jordan Brennan, Economist, Unifor

6. Jerry Buckland, Professor, Menno Simons College, University of Manitoba

7. Mary Anne Coffey, Contract Faculty, Department of Social Science, York University

8. Anupam Das, Associate Professor, Economics, Department of Economics, Justice, and Policy Studies, Mount Royal University

9. Megan J. Davis, Associate Professor, Department of Social Science, York University

10. Robert W. Dimand, Professor, Department of Economics, Brock University

11. Susan Dimock, Professor, Department of Philosophy, York University

12. Lynne Fernandez, Errol Black Chair in Labour Issues, Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives – Manitoba

13. Ernest Epp, Professor Emeritus, Department of History, Lakehead University

14. Evelyn Forget, Professor, Department of Community Health Sciences, University of Manitoba and Academic Director of the Manitoba Research Data Centre

15. Marjorie Griffin Cohen, Professor Emerita, Department of Political Science and Department of Gender, Sexuality, and Women’s Studies, Simon Fraser University

16. Ricardo Grinspun, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, York University

17. Trevor Harrison, Professor, Department of Sociology, University of Lethbridge

18. Alex Hemingway, Economist and Public Finance Policy Analyst, Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives – British Columbia

19. Trish Hennessy, Director, Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives – Ontario

20. Rod Hill, Professor of Economics, Faculty of Business, University of New Brunswick, Saint John

21. Ian Hudson, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Manitoba

22. Iglika Ivanova, Chair, Progressive Economics Forum and Senior Economist, Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives – British Columbia

23. Mustapha Ibn Boamah, Associate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Business, University of New Brunswick, Saint John

24. Thaddeus Hwong, Associate Professor, School of Public Policy and Administration, York University

25. Andrew Jackson, Adjunct Research Professor, Institute of Political Economy, Carleton University

26. Peggy Keall, Assistant Professor, Department of Social Science, York University

27. Kamala Kempadoo, Professor, Department of Social Science, York University

28. Gerda Kits, Associate Professor of Economics, The King’s University

29. Seth Klein, Director, Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives – British Columbia

30. Tuulia Law, Sessional Assistant Professor, Department of Social Science, York University

31. Marc Lee, Senior Economist, Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives – British Columbia

32. Martha MacDonald, Professor of Economics, Sobey School of Business, Saint Mary’s University

33. Hugh Mackenzie, Consulting Economist and Principal, Hugh Mackenzie & Associates

34. Fiona MacPhail, Professor and Chair, Department of Economics, University of Northern British Columbia

35. Joan McFarland, Professor, Department of Economics, St. Thomas University

36. Merouan Mekouar, Assistant Professor, Department of Social Science, York University

37. Eric Miller, Contract Faculty, York University

38. Rob Moir, Associate Professor of Economics, Associate Dean (Research & Special Projects), Acting Dean, Faculty of Business, University of New Brunswick, Saint John

39. Linda Peake, Professor, Director of The City Institute, York University

40. Ellie Perkins, Professor, Faculty of Environmental Studies, York University

41. David Pringle, Progressive Economics Forum

42. Lars Osberg, Professor, Department of Economics, Dalhousie University

43. Mario Seccareccia, Professor Emeritus, Department of Economics, University of Ottawa

44. Brenda Spotton Visano, Professor, Economics and School of Public Policy and Administration, York University

45. Jim Stanford, Harold Innis Industry Professor of Economics, McMaster University

46. John Stapleton, Social Policy Expert, Open Policy Ontario

47. Almos Tassonyi, Executive Fellow, School of Public Policy, University of Calgary

48. Mel Watkins, Professor Emeritus, Department of Economics, University of Toronto

49. Barry Watson, Associate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Business, University of New Brunswick, Saint John

50. Vicki Zhang, Assistant Professor, Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Toronto

Cc: Hon. Lisa MacLeod, Ontario Minister of Community and Social Services

MEDIA RELEASE: Alberta should increase social spending; cuts are not the way to go

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(June 24, 2019-Calgary) With Alberta’s economy still facing challenges and vulnerabilities, the Alberta government should not be doling out tax cuts or cutting social spending, according to the Alberta Alternative Budget (AAB) released today.

“Alberta still has, by far, the lowest debt-to-GDP ratio of any province,” says Nick Falvo, editor of the report. “We are in a good position to increase spending on education, invest in affordable child care, offer free dental care to Albertans under 18 years, and support other programs that would help Albertans facing unpredictability in the job market.”

The AAB is an annual exercise whose working group consists of researchers, economists, and members of civil society. The AAB  aims to create a progressive vision for Alberta to boost economic growth and reduce income inequality.

Today’s report calls for the introduction of a harmonized sales tax to reduce Alberta’s reliance on profit from energy markets, that have always been volatile. Under the previous government, important steps were taken to stabilize the economy through diversification and social spending.

“The UCP government has already cut close to $6 billion in provincial revenue by cancelling the carbon tax and cutting corporate taxes, and this is the wrong direction,” says Falvo. “Instead, investing in programs and infrastructure is what is needed to foster a vibrant Alberta.”

Download the report.

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Contact: Nick Falvo, falvo.nicholas@gmail.com, 587-892-7855


Ten things to know about this year’s Alberta Alternative Budget

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The Alberta Alternative Budget (AAB) is an annual exercise whose working group consists of researchers, economists, and members of civil society (full disclosure: I’m the Editor). Our general mandate is to create a progressive vision for Alberta to boost economic growth and reduce income inequality. This year’s document was released today, and here are 10 things to know:

  1. The NDP government of Rachel Notley government made important advances with respect to childcare, but much remains to be done. Specifically, the Notley government introduced a $25/day childcare pilot project and increased the provincial childcare budget by 27% since taking office. However, gender equality and women’s labour market participation in Alberta could be improved even further with universal childcare. This year’s AAB proposes that important steps be taken to get that done by investing an additional $1.65 billion in childcare over the next year.
  2. More than 80% of Alberta’s Kindergarten through Grade 3 classes currently exceed the provincial government’s own class size targets. What’s more, almost half of the province’s Grade 4 through Grade 12 classes exceed the government’s class size targets. And in high schools across the province, roughly half of all core subject classes exceed the Alberta Commission on Learning (ACOL) targets set in 2003. The AAB therefore recommends substantial increases in spending on k-12 education while also recommending that Alberta’s provincial government reduce funding for private schools (which are currently subsidized at higher rates than those in any other province).
  3. When it comes to gender and public policy, Alberta has a long way to go. Women in Alberta face the largest employment gender gap of any province. They are over-represented in lower-paying careers and their hourly pay for full-time work is only 80 cents on a man’s dollar. Further, Alberta lacks pay equity legislation. The AAB recommends that the annual budget of Alberta’s Ministry for Status of Women be increased by 30%, and that the provincial government create a pay equity task force to both investigate the reasons and propose solutions for the large gender pay gaps across industries and occupations in the province.
  4. There are nearly 6,000 reported cases of wage theft (i.e., unpaid wages) in Alberta each year. Further, in 2017/18, only 41% of wage-theft complaints were resolved within 180 days. And it’s generally accepted that formal wage-theft claims represent a small fraction of all instances of wage theft. The AAB therefore proposes that 75 additional employment standards officers be hired in the province, in order to prevent and remedy wage theft.
  5. One in 5 Alberta workers will be injured on the job this year; one in 11 seriously. This year’s AAB will therefore invest an additional $70 million in enforcement of Alberta’s occupational health and safety laws in order to make workplaces safer.
  6. Tuition fees as a share of university operating revenue have roughly tripled in Alberta over the last 30 years. The Notley government did freeze tuition fees in 2015, and recently introduced legislation that would tie tuition fee increases to inflation; but those measures alone don’t cut it. The AAB proposes a five-year ‘phase out’ of tuition fees, starting with a 20% reduction in tuition fees for all post-secondary students, including international students.
  7. Alberta still has, by far, the lowest debt-to-GDP ratio of any province. Alberta’s net debt-to-GDP ratio for 2018-19 is projected to be 6.5%. The next lowest is British Columbia’s, which stands at 15.2%. Though Alberta’s net debt-to-GDP ratio has risen quite quickly since the slump in oil prices, it’s hard to make the claim that the province is living beyond its means.
  8. Albertans collectively are taxed less than residents of any other province. According to Alberta Treasury Board and Finance, if Alberta’s provincial government adopted a tax structures similar to the next lowest-taxed province in the country (British Columbia), Alberta would generate an additional $8.7 billion in annual revenue.
  9. Alberta remains the only Canadian province without a provincial sales tax. The AAB Working Group estimates that the implementation of a 5% provincial sales tax in Alberta would generate approximately $5 billion in new revenue annually. What’s more, even after the implementation of this tax, Alberta would remain Canada’s lowest-taxed province!
  10. This year’s AAB further proposes that a new provincial sales tax be harmonized with the federal Goods and Services tax. The federal government already collects a 5% sales tax in the form of the Goods and Services Tax (GST). Following the lead of several other provinces, we propose that Alberta introduce a Harmonized Sales Tax (HST), which would allow the province to generate its own share of the revenue collected by the federal GST. Introducing a 5% provincial portion of a HST would still leave Alberta with a combined HST of 10%.

In Sum. In addition to providing a costed-out public policy alternative to the status quo in Alberta, each AAB chapter also provides a primer on the public policy topic in question. I think the document makes for excellent reading for researchers, educators, students and non-profit leaders. The media release, along with a link to the full document, can be found here.

Alberta must find alternatives to cutting social spending

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I have an opinion piece in today’s Edmonton Journal about Alberta’s current fiscal situation.

Points raised in the blog post include the following:

-The Jason Kenney government will almost certainly announce cuts to social spending in the near future.

-Yet, more than 80% of Alberta’s kindergarten through Grade 3 classes currently exceed the provincial government’s own class-size targets.

-Tuition fees as a share of university operating revenue have roughly tripled in Alberta over the last 30 years.

-Social assistance (i.e., welfare) caseloads have risen substantially in Alberta since the start of the economic downturn.

-Alberta still has, by far, the lowest debt-to-GDP ratio of any Canadian province.

-Albertans are also taxed less than any residents of any other province.

-Meanwhile, Alberta remains the only Canadian province without a provincial sales tax.

The link to the opinion piece is here.

Ten things to know about poverty measurement in Canada

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I’ve written a blog post providing an overview of poverty measurement in Canada. Points raised in the post include the following:

-One’s choice of poverty measure has a major impact on whether poverty is seen to be increasing or decreasing over time.

-Canada’s federal government recently chose the make the Market Basket Measure (MBM) its official poverty measure.

-According to the MBM, Canada has seen a major decrease in poverty over the past decade.

-Also according to the MBM, there is very little seniors’ poverty in Canada.

-The debate about poverty measurement in Canada has largely ignored the concept of asset poverty.

The link to the blog post is here.

Assessing progress on St. John’s Plan to End Homelessness

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I’ve written an assessment of the 2014-2019 St. John’s Community Plan to End Homelessness. The full assessment can be found here.

Points raised in the assessment include the following:

-Newfoundland and Labrador has the highest unemployment rate of any Canadian province. This pulls people into homelessness, while also making it more challenging for the provincial government to finance policy asks (such as subsidized housing with social work support).

-People interviewed as part of the assessment process expressed concern over the fact that nearly 40% of emergency shelter beds in St. John’s are run by for-profit providers (but paid for by the provincial government).

-The Trudeau government increased annual federal funding for homelessness (beginning with the 2016 federal budget) and this has been helpful at the local level in St. John’s (just as these increased federal funding levels helped other communities across Canada address homelessness).

-One promising development in Newfoundland and Labrador has been new child welfare legislation allowing youth to continue receiving care until the age of 21 (it used to be 18).

Affordable housing, homelessness and the upcoming federal budget

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I’ve written a ‘top 10’ overview of things to know about affordable housing and homelessness, as they relate to Canada’s upcoming federal budget. The overview is based on the affordable housing and homelessness chapter in the just-released Alternative Federal Budget.

A link to the ‘top 10’ overview is here.

Social assistance: Do higher benefit levels lead to higher caseloads?

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As part of my PhD thesis, I did some statistical analysis in which I asked the question: “Do higher social assistance benefit levels lead to higher caseloads?”

I have recently updated the data and had it published in a journal.

Here’s a short summary of the journal article’s main findings.

Lifting singles out of poverty in canada

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I’ve written a report for the Institute for Research on Public Policy about social assistance—specifically, about social assistance for employable single adults without dependants.

A ‘top 10’ overview of the report can be found here.


the recession’s likely long-term impact on homelessness

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I’ve just written a report for Employment and Social Development Canada on the current recession’s likely long-term impact on homelessness in Canada. An overview of the report can be found here.

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